More on Brexit

By | Category: Travel tips & opinions

A while ago I wrote that the travel industry hasn’t said a lot about the possible effects of Brexit. It has been left to others. That’s changed.

frustrated traveller
Will the holidaymaker win or will the politicians still be arguing? © Dan Sperrin

Last weekend, the WWTC (World Travel and Tourism Council) which represents the private sector of travel & Tourism globally pointed out that , in the UK, the sector contributes £213.8 billion to GDP (10.5% of total) and supports four million jobs (11.6% of total).

It then modelled the impact on the travel & tourism sector over the next decade, based on the 7.7% forecasted fall in economic activity across the wider UK economy modelled by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In this situation, a No Deal Brexit would result in:

  • A loss of 308,000 jobs in the UK economy
  • A loss of 399,000 jobs in the rest of the EU
  • A loss of £18.6 billion in GDP to the UK economy
  • A loss of £22.0 billion in GDP to the economies of the rest of the EU

The WTTC says that in order to minimise the impact on the UK

1. The UK should continue to have access to the Single Aviation Market

2. Visa-free travel between the UK and EU should be maintained and the movement of people should be as seamless as possible while maintaining security

3. The mobility of labour for Travel & Tourism employees across the UK and EU should continue

4. Security co-operation to avoid hard border checks and lengthy delays are paramount

Gloria Guevara, the President & CEO, WTTC said, “The UK is the fifth largest Travel & Tourism economy in the world. Given its importance to the UK economy, it is now clear that a No Deal Brexit would have a dramatic impact on one of the UK’s most significant sectors.” But she also pointed out the effect on Europa as a whole. “If the IMF prediction on the wider economy is realised, there would be a total cost across Europe of over £40 billion and over 700,000 jobs compared to our projections.”

This is dependent on the IMF forecasts which haven’t had the greatest success in forcasting But neither do many of us otherwise, like Del Boy, this time next year we would all be millionaires!

But the loss of jobs  in both the EU and the UK – whether likely or not – might concentrate the minds of politicians on both sides to resolve a deal so that travellers and holidaymakers can have easy access throughout Europe whether they be EU citizens of British.

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