It could be a good year for travellers

By | Category: Travel news
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Will there be more bargains this year than last?

At travel trade shows, usually the talk is upbeat. Even countries that are suffering from internal issues tend to suggest that things are improving. In the past Egyptian tourism ministers had repeatedly told me they were expecting an improvement in tourism numbers. That took some years to come about.

So what can we learn from last week’s big travel trade show in Berlin?  The show says that it saw a 5% increase in business volume and that about 110,000 trade visitors attended. More than 10,000 companies and organisations visited from 186 countries and regions. Most would have been upbeat.

But one travel trade publication, eTurboNews, took a different line. Summing up the show it said that it had been told by “dozens of exhibitors that the investment this year did not justify expected results.” If the trade is not going or writing business does that mean the trade thinks it might be a tough year for them?

Christian Göke, CEO of the exhibition centre sais.: “The consistent forecasts of sustained global economic growth for the next two years decisively contributed to the positive mood among exhibitors and visitors these past few days.”

At the same time, IATA announced that global passenger traffic results for January 2018 showing traffic (revenue passenger kilometers or RPKs) rose 4.6% compared to January 2017. This was the slowest year-over-year increase in nearly four years. (my italics.) In fairness though, IATA put this result down to temporary factors

Following on from the announcements by TUI, Thomas Cook and Jet 2 last month, it looks to me as though growth may be slower this year than last year. If I am right then it means there will be bargains to be had as it gets closer to summer. It certainly won’t be in all destinations but there will be some as governments work to keep the number of tourism visitors up.

At the beginning of the year I was thinking there would be fewer bargains around this year. Now I am becoming more optimistic. After all a good year for the travel trade usually means a poorer year for travellers as we have to pay more. A less good year for the trade means better value and prices for us!

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